IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok: AI exports and Thailand's PCB industry

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group are holding their 2026 Annual Meetings in Bangkok from 12 to 18 October, the first in Thailand since 1991.^[1] More than 15,000 participants from 191 countries have registered.^[2] In the same weeks both institutions raised their forecasts for Thailand's growth in 2026, and both named the same driver: exports and investment tied to artificial intelligence.^[4][7] Printed circuit boards (PCBs), the boards that connect the chips in every server and router, sit inside that driver. This article reads the forecasts, the trade data and the MPBxChange plant register together to show where Thai PCB makers stand and what the meetings can change for them.

Key points

• The IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook projects growth of 2.1% for Thailand in both 2026 and 2027, against 3.1% and 3.4% for the world.^[3] The World Bank raised its 2026 forecast for Thailand by 0.7 percentage points to 2.0%, citing strong exports and AI-related investment.^[4]
• By April 2026, AI-related products accounted for more than 70% of export growth in Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and Viet Nam.^[4] The World Bank counts these goods with the WTO list of AI-enabling products, and printed circuits (HS 853400) are on that list.^[5]
• Assembled equipment such as computers, servers and routers makes up 69% of Thailand's AI-related exports.^[4] Thailand imported US$3.54 billion of bare boards in 2025, more than twice the US$1.58 billion it exported.^[10]
• A board made in Thailand instead of imported keeps more of the AI export boom in the Thai economy. The BOI received 222 applications for PCB and PCB-material projects worth THB 320,078 million from 2023 to 2025,^[17] and the MPBxChange register lists 39 PCB plants, 33 of them operating or ramping.
• The meetings bring the people who decide where the next plants and material lines go to one city for a week. The Finance Minister who hosts them also chairs Thailand's Board of Investment.^[2][18]

The IMF and World Bank forecasts for Thailand

The IMF released its October 2026 World Economic Outlook in Bangkok on 13 October. It projects world growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, and Thai growth of 2.1% in both years.^[3] Thai PBS reported that the IMF raised its 2026 forecast for Thailand from 1.7% to 2.1% because of rising AI-related investment.^[7] Before the meetings, the IMF's Managing Director described a world economy pulled between a negative energy supply shock and a positive demand shock from AI.^[8]

The World Bank's East Asia and Pacific update, published on 6 October, reached the same view from the trade side. It forecasts Thai growth of 2.0% in 2026, 0.7 percentage points above its previous forecast, rising to 2.3% in 2027 and 2.4% in 2028.^[4] Higher energy prices weigh on tourism and logistics, while strong exports, AI-related investment and energy relief measures partly offset them.^[4] The Bank names China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam as economies benefiting from their role in value chains for AI-related goods.^[4]

Taiwan (10.7%) and Viet Nam (8.4%) lead the economies shown for 2026; Thailand's 2.1% is the lowest of the group and below the world's 3.1%.^[3] The World Bank's account of the chain explains part of the difference. Assembled equipment such as computers, servers and routers accounts for 69% of Thailand's AI-related exports, while China, the largest supplier, mostly exports intermediate inputs to other ASEAN countries.^[4] When an exporter assembles from imported parts, part of every export dollar pays for those parts abroad. MPBxChange reads this as the opening for Thai PCB plants: boards are among the parts Thailand imports today and is building the capacity to make.

Where printed circuit boards sit in the AI trade figures

By April 2026, demand for AI-related products accounted for more than half of export growth in most economies of the region, and for more than 70% in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam.^[4] The World Bank counts AI-related goods with the WTO's 2025 classification of AI-enabling products.^[4] That list includes printed circuits (HS 853400), alongside computers, network equipment and processors.^[5] Bare boards are therefore part of the AI-related trade behind both forecasts, as a product in their own right and as the base of every server and router assembled in Thailand.

The diagram follows the chain from upstream inputs to final demand. In the twelve months to April 2026, China exported US$785 billion of AI-related goods, nearly three-quarters of them intermediate inputs, and the United States imported US$739 billion, a third of it from East Asia and the Pacific.^[4] Thailand works mainly at the assembly stage. Its exports of computers (HS 8471) rose from US$11.9 billion in 2019 to US$22.8 billion in 2025, and of telecom and network equipment (HS 8517) from US$4.1 billion to US$17.3 billion.^[13] The bars at stage 02 show the board trade that supplies this assembly: in 2025 Thailand imported US$3.54 billion of bare boards, 64.5% of them from China, and exported US$1.58 billion.^[10]

By output, the Taiwan Printed Circuit Association ranks Thailand first in Southeast Asia, with US$5.06 billion in 2025, 5.4% of world output.^[23] Set against customs exports of US$1.58 billion,^[10] that output implies about US$3.5 billion of Thai-made boards stayed in Thailand in 2025, close to the US$3.54 billion imported. The two figures are compiled on different bases, so the comparison is approximate. On that reading, plants in Thailand already supply about half of the boards used in the country, and imports supply the rest.

Exports and imports of bare boards were level in 2019, at about US$1.21 billion each.^[10] By 2025 imports had almost tripled, to US$3.54 billion, while exports had risen by 30%, and imports have exceeded exports every year since 2020.^[10] The difference is a domestic market that Thai plants can serve without their boards leaving the country.

The 2026 figures show both directions growing. From January to May, exports of bare boards rose 39.4% on a year earlier, to US$833.2 million, and imports rose 83.4%, to US$2,277.9 million.^[11] Thailand imported US$2.73 of bare boards for every dollar it exported, against US$2.25 in 2025.^[11][10] Plants in Thailand are shipping more, and assemblers in Thailand are buying more boards than local plants supply. The Office of Industrial Economics reported July exports of printed circuits at US$232 million, 78.8% more than a year earlier.^[16] In its rebased production index for August, output of electronic components and boards rose 14.55% on a year earlier, led by assembled boards (PCBA).^[15] Thailand's total exports rose 24.3% in August to US$34.62 billion, which the Trade Policy and Strategy Office attributed to global investment in AI and related infrastructure.^[14]

The value of the import gap

The 2025 import bill gives the scale of the opening. The table applies three illustrative shares to it.^[10]

Source: UN Comtrade, Thailand's 2025 returns for HS 8534;^[10] MPBxChange calculation. The shares are illustrative.

Each tenth of the import bill is worth more than a fifth of Thailand's 2025 board exports. Assemblers qualify a board for each product before they order it in volume, so substitution builds programme by programme; the import bill shows how large the market is that the new plants can qualify for at home.

What the meetings can change for PCB makers

The Thai Chamber of Commerce estimates the economic activity generated by the meeting week at THB 8 billion to 9 billion.^[2] That is less than 3% of the THB 320,078 million in PCB and PCB-material projects that applied for BOI promotion from 2023 to 2025.^[17] For the PCB industry the meetings matter for who attends and what follows, through three channels.

Investors and parent companies

The participants include finance and development ministers, central bankers and private-sector executives.^[1] The government aims to present Thailand as a "global connector" and a secure investment base, and the Electronic and Computer Employers' Association expects the meetings to strengthen confidence among the parent companies of electronics manufacturers operating in Thailand.^[2] For PCB plants, those parent companies are where capacity decisions are made. Of the 39 plants mapped in the MPBxChange study Who owns Thailand's PCB plants, 33 belong to listed groups, most of them listed in Shenzhen, Taiwan and Shanghai.

Thailand's Finance Minister, who hosts the meetings, also chairs the Board of Investment,^[18] and the BOI now tracks capital actually invested as well as applications: THB 535,800 million in the first half of 2026.^[18] Approvals are still arriving. In 2026 the BOI approved a second phase of expansion by three PCB makers worth THB 22,000 million, with 5,000 more jobs for Thai staff,^[17] and Bernama-Xinhua reported BOI data showing PCBs as the largest single category of semiconductor and advanced-electronics applications from 2023 to mid-2026: 224 projects worth US$9.85 billion.^[20]

Domestic supply chains and skills

The Finance Minister has said that conditions encouraging technology transfer and links with domestic supply chains would help the benefits reach Thai businesses.^[2] In the PCB industry those links run in two directions. Downstream, Thai assemblers are the nearest customers for Thai boards. Upstream, board makers need laminate, prepreg, copper foil and process chemicals, and material makers have begun to follow the plants: in 2026 the BOI approved a USD 189.2 million plant in Chon Buri to make laminate and prepreg for AI servers.^[19]

Skills are the other link. The World Bank reports that 12% of Thai firms use any AI technology, against 43% in the United States.^[4] Its regional vice president described the task as turning the region's strength in producing AI-related goods into wider adoption and better jobs.^[6] PCB plants need process engineers and technicians: Peng Shen alone expects to need more than 1,000 highly skilled staff by 2027.^[22]

Trade terms

The IMF's advice for Asia is deeper regional integration through lower trade and investment barriers, and it lists higher US tariffs and policy uncertainty among the risks to export demand.^[1] Since 24 July 2026 Thai goods entering the United States carry a 12.5% Section 301 tariff, the same rate the notice sets for China and Viet Nam.^[21] US demand has held: Thai shipments to the United States rose 48.7% in August 2026,^[14] and in 2025 Thailand was the third-largest supplier of bare boards to the United States, with 6.9% of imports, up from sixth in 2019.^[12] Tariffs and investment rules, both on the meetings' agenda, set the cost of serving that market from Thailand.

Risks named by the IMF and the World Bank

Both institutions attach risks to the AI-led growth they describe.

• Concentration: headline trade growth has been strong, but growth excluding AI-related goods has been weak or negative.^[4]
• An AI slowdown: a slowdown concentrated in AI would reach downstream assemblers such as Thailand and Viet Nam directly through weaker final demand, and upstream suppliers indirectly.^[4] The IMF warns that weaker or less durable AI investment and profitability could trigger a market correction.^[9]
• Energy and climate: energy prices that stay high for an extended period, and damage from a severe El Niño, are the World Bank's other downside risks.^[4]

MPBxChange reads the first two risks as an argument for breadth. A board plant that supplies both export programmes and assemblers inside Thailand, across servers, networking, automotive and industrial products, depends less on any single cycle.

Indicators to watch after the meetings

• The Commerce Ministry's monthly export figures for computers, telephones and printed circuits.^[14]
• The Office of Industrial Economics' rebased production index, which now covers optical transceivers, notebook computers and server power units alongside boards.^[15]
• BOI figures for capital actually invested each quarter.^[18]
• UN Comtrade's full-year 2026 returns for HS 8534, due in 2027.^[10]
• US tariff notices under Section 301.^[21]

Data and method

Forecasts come from the IMF DataMapper series NGDP_RPCH, labelled World Economic Outlook (October 2026), retrieved on 15 October 2026, and from the World Bank's East Asia and Pacific Economic Update of October 2026, read in full; the WTO list of AI-enabling goods was checked in its HS concordance file. Trade figures come from the UN Comtrade public database (Thailand's and the United States' returns, accessed 24 and 25 September 2026) and from the BOI, the Office of Industrial Economics and the Commerce Ministry, partly as reported by the press. Plant counts and the ownership chart come from the MPBxChange register of PCB plants in Thailand. Ratios, shares and the illustrative import shares are MPBxChange calculations from the published figures, and interpretation in the text is MPBxChange analysis. Researched on 15 October 2026, during the Annual Meetings.