Thailand PCB exports: forecast for 2026 to 2030

Thailand exported US$833.4 million of bare printed circuit boards in the first five months of 2026, 39.4% more than in the same months of 2025.^[1] The Office of Industrial Economics (OIE) reports that exports of printed circuits reached US$232 million in July 2026 alone, 78.8% more than a year earlier.^[4] MPBxChange's forecasting model, selected for the smallest errors across 22 historical forecast origins, puts 2026 exports at US$1.76 to 2.49 billion with 95% probability, most likely about US$2.11 billion. The entire range lies above the previous annual record of US$1.65 billion, set in 2021.^[2]

Key points

• 2026 is on course for a record: the model's range for the year is US$1,819 to 2,367 million (80%) and US$1,763 to 2,489 million (95%), against US$1,576.9 million in 2025.^[1][2]
• July's US$232 million is above the model's 80% range for the month, indicating that exports are running at the top of the range.^[4]
• For 2030 the most likely value is US$2.28 billion, with an 80% range of US$1.56 to 3.96 billion.
• Scenarios based on published market growth rates put 2030 exports at US$1.95, 3.34 or 4.24 billion.^[2][7]
• The selected model is an average of three standard methods; in backtesting its forecasts of the following year's total had an average error of 10.3%.

Market context

HS 8534 is the customs heading for bare printed circuit boards. In 2024 Thailand exported US$1,326.2 million, seventh among the 118 reporting economies (UN Comtrade, October 2026) and close behind Malaysia at US$1,367.5 million.^[3] Thailand is a net importer: imports were US$3,541.8 million in 2025, against exports of US$1,576.9 million.^[2]

Growth is driven by a wave of new plants. Nikkei Asia counted nearly 60 PCB makers from China and Taiwan setting up in Thailand in less than three years.^[9] In the MPBxChange register, 28 of the 39 plants that publish a founding year were registered in Thailand from 2022 onwards, and 6 plants are under construction or announced. Prismark, as quoted by WUS Printed Circuit, expects Asia outside China and Japan, especially Southeast Asia, to be the fastest-growing region to 2030, at 13.2% a year against 11.0% for the world.^[7] Victory Giant quotes Prismark's rate for mainland China at 10.5% a year, from US$49.65 billion of output in 2025 to US$81.76 billion in 2030.^[8]

New plants reach full output gradually, so their effect appears in the trade figures with a lag. The monthly returns show how much of the investment has already reached exports.

Data

The forecast uses Thailand's monthly returns to UN Comtrade for HS 8534 from January 2015 to May 2026, 137 months with no gaps.^[1] The months sum to the annual returns within US$0.3 million for every year from 2015 to 2025.^[2] The 'printed circuit' line in OIE's monthly reports tracks the same goods closely: its July 2026 figure implies US$129.8 million for July 2025, against US$129.4 million in UN Comtrade,^[4][1] and its December 2025 figure of US$151.7 million, up 39.1%, implies US$109.1 million for December 2024, against US$108.2 million.^[5][1] OIE data for months after May 2026 therefore provide an early check on the forecast.

Method

Five methods were compared: a seasonal naive forecast (same month of the previous year); exponential smoothing with a damped trend; seasonal ARIMA; a trend with a slope break in June 2023, the median registration month of plants registered in Thailand from 2022 in the MPBxChange register; and an equal-weight average of the first three, since forecast combination reliably improves accuracy.^[12]

Each method was evaluated on a rolling forecasting origin:^[11] at 22 origins, every three months from December 2019 to March 2025, it was fitted to data up to that month and forecast the next 12 months. Accuracy was measured by mean absolute percentage error per month (MAPE), mean absolute scaled error (MASE), which scales the error against the seasonal naive forecast,^[10] and percentage error on the 12-month total.

The average of three methods had the smallest errors and is used for the forecast. In this combination each month's forecast is the equal-weight mean of the seasonal ARIMA forecast, the damped-trend exponential smoothing forecast and the value for the same month of the previous year. The annual ranges are percentiles of 5,000 simulated monthly paths summed to calendar years, with the months already reported held at their reported values; the 80% range runs from the 10th to the 90th percentile and the 95% range from the 2.5th to the 97.5th. The backtest uses 22 quarterly origins, December 2019 to March 2025, each forecasting the following 12 months. The trend with a break had the largest, as it extends the steepest part of the series. The forecast ranges are prediction intervals, expected to contain the outcome with the stated probability.^[13] In backtesting, the 80% ranges contained 81% of subsequent months and the 95% ranges 94%. Most misses occurred at upturns, in 2020 and from late 2024, when exports rose faster than forecast.

Export forecast, 2026 to 2030

The five reported months account for US$833.4 million of 2026, so the range for the year is narrow. The most likely value, US$2,107 million, is 33.6% above 2025. Thereafter the most likely path rises gradually, to US$2,281 million in 2030, while the ranges widen. The model treats 2026 as a step up in level; the data do not yet establish a new trend.

The July figure points to the upper part of the range. The model's most likely value for July 2026 was US$184 million, with an 80% range of US$120 to 218 million; OIE reported US$232 million.^[4] This matches the backtest pattern, in which statistical models lagged rises driven by new capacity.

Scenarios from published growth rates

Each scenario starts from the reported 2026 months and applies a single published growth rate, translating each market view into a path for Thailand's exports.

US$ million. Low: the 2026 months reported plus the remaining months of 2025 (US$833.4 plus US$979.0 million), then 1.8% a year, Thailand's average from 2015 to 2025.^[2] Base: January to May growth held for the whole of 2026 (US$1,576.9 million x 1.394), then 11.0% a year, Prismark's world forecast in its first-quarter 2026 report as quoted by WUS Printed Circuit;^[7] Prismark's fourth-quarter 2025 report had given 7.7%.^[6] High: July's 78.8% growth applied to the rest of 2026,^[4] then 13.2% a year, Prismark's rate for Asia outside China and Japan in the same first-quarter 2026 report.^[7] The base path stays within the model's 80% range in every year. The high path exceeds the model's range in 2026, as it assumes July's pace holds for seven months.

Outlook

Thailand's export supply base is expanding rapidly, with more plants, more capacity and rising monthly shipments. Domestic demand is also substantial: Thailand imported US$3,541.8 million of bare boards in 2025,^[2] and OIE reported that imports of printed circuits in December 2025 were 91.93% higher than a year earlier.^[5] The same approach applied to imports (seasonal ARIMA, with an average error of 14.8% on the 12-month total) puts 2026 imports at US$5.08 to 6.50 billion (80%), part of which is addressable by plants producing the same boards in Thailand.

Limitations

The series spans 137 months, covering one pandemic cycle and a relocation wave still under way, which is short for a five-year horizon. The models use past trade only, without plant or order data, and therefore lag at upturns. Recent months are subject to revision. HS 8534 covers bare boards only; boards exported inside finished products are classified under those products. Prismark figures are as quoted in listed companies' filings. The scenarios are conditional paths, and the ranges for 2029 and 2030 widen with the horizon.

Sources and data

Research date 26 September 2026. Sources: Thailand's monthly and annual returns to UN Comtrade; the monthly reports of Thailand's Office of Industrial Economics; the annual and interim reports of Shennan Circuits, WUS Printed Circuit and Victory Giant (which quote Prismark); trade press; and the forecasting literature. The model fits five methods, backtests them on 22 historical origins and simulates 5,000 paths to 2030. Plant counts come from the MPBxChange register of PCB plants in Thailand, compiled from company, BOI and press records.