The world PCB market in 2026: AI servers, China plus one and Thailand

Printed circuit board output grew by 15 to 17% in 2025 on the two most widely quoted estimates, and both estimators attribute the growth mainly to AI servers and data-centre networking.^[7][1] This article sets out who estimated what, which products are driving the change, where boards are made, why capacity is moving to Southeast Asia, and what that means for Thailand and for buyers who source there. Reported figures carry their source. Passages marked Analysis are our own reading of those figures.

Key points

• Prismark put 2025 world PCB output at US$85.2 billion in its fourth-quarter 2025 report and US$85.8 billion in its first-quarter 2026 report. TPCA and ITRI put it at US$92.4 billion.^[7][9][1]
• The growth is narrow. Prismark forecasts 79% growth in 2026 for boards with 18 or more layers, against 3.1% for 4 to 6 layer boards.^[8]
• China mainland still makes about 58% of the world's boards. The rest of Asia, which includes Southeast Asia, is the fastest-growing region in Prismark's forecast.^[9]
• TPCA estimates Thailand's 2025 output at US$5.06 billion, 5.4% of the world total, the largest in Southeast Asia. A year earlier, TPCA published an ITRI forecast of US$3.9 billion.^[2][5]
• US trade rules changed twice in 2026. In February the US Supreme Court ruled that the emergency-powers law behind the 2025 "reciprocal" tariffs does not authorise tariffs. In July a new 12.5% Section 301 tariff on Thai goods took effect, at the same rate as China and Vietnam.^[18][17]

How big is the market

This article uses two sets of estimates. Prismark is an industry research firm;^[8] its figures here are taken from the filings of listed PCB makers that quote it. The Taiwan Printed Circuit Association (TPCA) publishes its own estimates with the Industry, Science and Technology International Strategy Center (ISTI) of Taiwan's Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI).^[1]

Sources: Shennan Circuits,^[7] WUS Printed Circuit,^[8] Victory Giant,^[9] TPCA.^[1]

Prismark's 2024 base was US$73.6 billion.^[7] WUS reports that world output in the first quarter of 2026 was about 26.3% higher than a year earlier.^[8] Prismark also expects the area of board shipped to grow from about 483 million to about 628 million square metres by 2030, or 5.4% a year, far slower than value.^[8]

Analysis. The two series differ by US$6.5 to 7.2 billion for 2025. Neither release explains the gap, so we do not reconcile it. The growth rates are the comparable part, and both put 2025 growth at 15 to 17%. The bigger warning is in Prismark's own revisions. In one quarter its 2030 forecast rose by US$21 billion and its five-year growth rate from 7.7% to 11.0%. Long-range PCB forecasts are currently moving with sentiment about AI capital spending.

What is growing: AI servers, HDI and substrates

For 2025, Prismark's fourth-quarter report estimates that boards with 18 or more layers grew 72.8%, HDI 26.0% and IC substrates 18.2%, while flexible boards grew 3.2%.^[7] Its 2026 forecast keeps the same pattern.^[8]

Source: Prismark Q1 2026 report, as quoted by WUS Printed Circuit.^[8]

Layer count is the main reason. Conventional server boards typically have 14 to 24 layers, while AI server boards have 20 to 30 or more.^[13] Victory Giant's interim report puts the AI server PCB market at US$16 billion in 2025, without naming who estimated it.^[9] At TTM Technologies, a US-listed maker, data-centre and networking sales rose 91% year on year in the second quarter of 2026. That segment made up 40% of revenue.^[10]

Substrates are the other bottleneck. TPCA and ITRI estimate world substrate output at US$14.75 billion in 2025 and US$19.51 billion in 2026, up 32.3%.^[3] Counted by company headquarters, Taiwanese firms held 35.6% of the substrate market in 2025, Korean firms 27.9% and Japanese firms 22.7%. Taiwanese firms held 41.3% of ABF substrates.^[3] TPCA reports that Ibiden supplies about 70% of AI GPU substrates.^[4]

Supply is tight upstream. TPCA reports shortages of low-CTE glass cloth for substrates, and of high-grade glass cloth and copper foil for boards, with the shortages pushing up prices.^[3][6] Makers of other board types are feeling it too. WUS says gross margin on its automotive boards fell about 6.2 percentage points in the first half of 2026 because raw-material costs rose faster than it could pass them on.^[8] TPCA also warns that consumer demand is soft, because memory makers moving capacity to AI products have pushed up phone and PC costs.^[1]

Where boards are made

There are two ways to count production: by where the factory is, as Prismark does, or by where the owner is headquartered, as TPCA does.

Source: Prismark, as quoted by Victory Giant.^[9] Shares are our arithmetic from the published dollar figures, rounded.

Prismark expects China's output to grow 10.5% a year to 2030, against 13.2% for the rest of Asia. WUS reads Southeast Asia as the fastest-growing region, driven by supplier diversification, geopolitical risk and tariffs, while China keeps more than half of world output.^[9][8]

By ownership, Chinese-owned firms held 34.9% of world output in 2024 and an estimated 37.6% in 2025. Japanese-owned firms held 14.4% and Korean-owned firms 9.8% in 2024.^[4] Taiwanese-owned firms still made 63.7% of their output in China in the first quarter of 2026. They made 32.3% in Taiwan and 4.0% in Southeast Asia.^[6] TPCA estimates that Southeast Asia makes about 12.3% of world output, but that locally owned firms make only about 1%.^[2]

Analysis. The two views agree. The shift out of China is real but small compared with total output, and it is being carried out mostly by Chinese and Taiwanese firms.^[2][12] China's own capacity is also growing. More than 20 Chinese PCB companies announced large expansions in the first half of 2026.^[13] In April 2026, Zhen Ding, the largest maker by revenue, began building 23 factories in Jiangsu province.^[14]

China plus one, and what trade policy has to do with it

Nikkei Asia reports that the shift of PCB supply from China and Taiwan accelerated after Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei in 2022. Since then, US technology companies including Microsoft, Apple and Dell have been looking beyond China for assembly and critical components.^[12] In under three years, nearly 60 Chinese and Taiwanese PCB makers set up in Thailand.^[12] The 19% US "reciprocal" tariff on Thailand in 2025 had limited effect on the industry, because the boards are shipped to assembly plants in Vietnam, India and elsewhere before the finished products reach the US.^[12]

Since then the legal basis has changed. On 20 February 2026 the US Supreme Court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorise the President to impose tariffs. The reciprocal tariffs had been imposed under that law.^[18] On 24 July 2026 the US Trade Representative imposed Section 301 tariffs on economies found not to be enforcing bans on imports made with forced labour. The rate is 12.5% for Thailand, Vietnam and China and 10% for Malaysia and India. Taiwan's rate is set so that the regular duty plus the new tariff comes to 10% where the regular duty is lower.^[17] Thai press reports list printed circuit boards among the Thai products covered.^[16] A separate Section 301 investigation into excess manufacturing capacity covers 16 partners, including Thailand. For Thailand it names automotive and parts, machinery, and rubber products, not electronics.^[22]

Research on the US-China trade war since 2018 helps explain what is happening. Alfaro and Chor found US sourcing shifting from China to Vietnam and Mexico, with early signs that prices from those places were rising.^[19] Freund and co-authors found that the countries replacing China in strategic industries tend to be deeply integrated in China's supply chains.^[21] Fajgelbaum and co-authors found that many "bystander" countries also raised their exports of the affected products to the rest of the world, not only to the US.^[20]

Analysis. Thailand's PCB wave fits those findings. The capital comes mostly from China and Taiwan, high-end materials are imported, and Nikkei's sources say boards go to assembly plants in third countries before the finished products reach the US.^[12] The July 2026 action treats Thai, Chinese and Vietnamese goods alike, so it adds no new tariff reason to prefer Thailand. Customer requirements for a second source, and AI supply chains that need capacity quickly, now carry more of the explanation.

Company moves, 2025 to 2026

Prismark ranked Shennan fourth among world PCB makers by expected 2025 revenue, and Victory Giant seventh.^[7][9]

Thailand's place

Estimates of Thailand's output have been revised sharply.

Analysis. TPCA's July 2026 figure for 2025 is 30% above the forecast it published a year earlier, and its 2026 forecast is already above the 2030 figure ISTI gave in 2025. The release does not say whether this reflects faster ramp-ups or a change in method. Treat any single figure for Thailand's output with caution.

The Board of Investment (BOI) says it received 214 PCB-related applications, covering boards, assembly and key materials, from 2023 to November 2025. Together they were worth more than THB300 billion. The BOI describes Thailand as ASEAN's largest PCB base and one of the world's top five.^[11] Zhen Ding's Thai plant is its first outside China and Taiwan. The BOI dates its start of production to September 2025, and the company, as reported by Taiwan News, to May 2025.^[11][14]

The MPBxChange register lists 39 PCB plants in Thailand. Of these, 33 are reported operating or ramping and 6 are under construction or announced. Of the 39 plants that publish a founding year, 28 were registered in 2022 or later.

The same sources report problems that are still open:

• Thailand is still a net importer of PCBs.^[5]
• Chinese-owned makers produce only about 1.7% of their output in Thailand.^[4]
• Experienced production-line managers now earn THB80,000 to 100,000 a month, double what they earned a few years ago. High-end materials are still imported.^[12]
• Shennan reports that customer qualification takes longer at its Thai plant than in China. WUS reports start-up costs and difficulty hiring for its Thai base.^[7][8]
• Renewable electricity is about 3% of consumption at some leading Thai producers, and the pilot scheme for direct power purchase agreements is open only to data centres.^[15]

What this means for buyers

Analysis. Five practical points follow from the reported figures.

1. Expect the AI boom to reach you through materials, not spare capacity. Standard 4 to 6 layer boards are forecast to grow 3% in 2026. The shortages are in glass cloth and copper foil, and TPCA reports that they are pushing up prices.^[8][6] Agree laminate grades and approved alternatives early, and ask how the supplier allocates material.
2. Qualify the plant, not the parent company. New Thai lines take longer to qualify, according to the makers themselves.^[7] Ask which site and line will build your boards, which certifications that site holds, and what its yields are.
3. Know which newcomers need orders. Nikkei's sources describe two kinds of new entrant: those that arrived with anchor customers, such as Victory Giant and Gold Circuit, and those that built first and are now competing for work.^[12] The second group may be more open to mid-volume programmes.
4. Model tariffs on the finished product. For goods entering the US, Thai origin now carries the same 12.5% Section 301 rate as China and Vietnam, and more than Malaysia's 10%.^[17] Duty depends on where the final product is assembled and how its origin is decided, so work it out on the whole product. Expect to be asked for documents on forced-labour compliance.
5. Ask about power if you report supply-chain emissions. Low renewable supply at Thai plants may raise your reported supply-chain emissions. Krungsri Research, cited by Reccessary, expects decarbonisation to become a supplier qualification requirement within three to five years.^[15]

How this was researched

We researched this article on 24 September 2026 from primary documents: TPCA releases; the annual and interim reports of Shennan Circuits, WUS Printed Circuit and Victory Giant, which quote Prismark; TTM's results release; the US Trade Representative's Federal Register notice; the US Supreme Court's opinion; two peer-reviewed journal articles and one working paper on relocating supply chains; and trade and business press. Prismark's reports were not read directly, so every Prismark figure here is as quoted in a listed company's filing. Plant counts and the chart come from the MPBxChange register of PCB plants in Thailand, compiled from company, BOI and press records.