Thailand's PCB plant pipeline: bare-board output to 2030

Twenty-nine of the PCB plants in the MPBxChange register have a published investment figure, from a company filing, a Board of Investment (BOI) release or a company statement. At Bank of Thailand rates the amounts total US$7.83 billion across 35 tranches.^[1] MPBxChange converts that investment into bare-board output by year with a simulation model: revenue per dollar of plant is drawn from the accounts of listed board makers, each plant starts on its owner's stated date and ramps over a period drawn from cases documented in the register, and 10,000 runs give a distribution of outcomes. In the central case the announced plants produce US$3.46 billion of bare boards a year by 2027 and US$7.35 billion by 2030, with 10th to 90th percentile ranges of US$2.19 to 7.44 billion and US$4.69 to 15.68 billion. The increase over their 2025 output is well above the export growth in the export forecast, indicating substantial new supply available to buyers.

Key points

• US$7.83 billion of announced investment: 29 plants publish an amount, 35 tranches in all, at the Bank of Thailand rates of 25 September 2026.^[1] A further 4 new plants have not disclosed an amount.
• The announced plants most likely produce US$3,465 million in 2027, US$5,035 million in 2028 and US$7,352 million in 2030; the 10th to 90th percentile range for 2030 is US$4,685 to 15,682 million. The most likely increase over their 2025 level is US$2,756 million by 2027 and US$6,653 million by 2030.
• Prachin Buri adds the most output, US$3,420 million a year by 2030 in the central case, followed by Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya with US$1,490 million. By parent country, plants with Chinese parents produce US$3,701 million and plants with Taiwanese parents US$3,308 million.
• The export forecast's most likely path has exports US$704 million above 2025 by 2030, equal to 11% of the most likely increase in the plants' output; its 95% upper bound requires 62%.
• Exports rose 29.9% from 2019 to 2025, from US$1,214.1 million to US$1,576.9 million.^[5][6] China, the United States, Japan, Vietnam and India together added US$467.5 million, more than the total change of US$362.9 million, as shipments to some established markets declined.

Approach

The BOI reports that PCB and PCB-material makers filed 222 applications worth THB 320,078 million from 2023 to 2025.^[4] That total combines board plants with laminate and chemical plants, and applications with committed spending. The register instead records each plant individually, with the amount its owner has published, its status and its dates. Converting investment into output depends on the sales a dollar of plant supports. The model takes this from listed board makers' accounts as a company-level ratio: annual sales over the previous ten years of capital spending. The ratio varies between companies, and the model carries that variation through to the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles reported here.

The announced pipeline

The table lists every tranche with a published amount, as recorded in the register on 26 September 2026. Plants with a separately funded second phase appear more than once. Start is the month the owner reported or targeted for production; where no date is published, the model assigns one (step 4 below).

US$ conversions at the Bank of Thailand rates of 25 September 2026.^[1] Phase-two amounts for Compeq, Multi-Fineline and Gold Circuit, and their phase-one amounts of THB 13,000, 14,000 and 8,000 million, are from the BOI release of 15 May 2026, no. 73/2569.^[4] Unimicron and Unitech amounts are the parent's cumulative paid-in capital in the Thai subsidiary, a lower bound on plant cost,^[13][14] and Welgao's amount is the registered capital of its Thai subsidiary.^[21] The final Peng Shen tranche is the share of more than THB 65 billion across four BOI-promoted projects^[11] not covered by the parent's stated spending; the model places it in 2029. Amounts without a footnote come from company announcements compiled in the MPBxChange plant register and are not separately cited here: AITC, Allfavor, Aohong, Apcb (Victory Giant), Draco PCB, Guanghe, IFOUND, Mektec, Olympic Circuit, Peng Shen phase 1, QuanTech, Sundell, Taihua, Thai Kun, WTT and both WUS tranches.

New plants without a published investment amount:

• AKM Meadville Electronics (Thailand) (China, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, under construction): registered capital only.
• STARTEAM GLOBAL (Prachinburi STARTEAM) (Hong Kong, Prachin Buri, operating).
• SYKC Circuit (Thailand) (China, Rayong, operating).
• Dynamic Technology Manufacturing (Thailand) first plant (Taiwan, Prachin Buri, operating): USD 59.8 m injected in 2025 is a partial figure; the second plant is in the pipeline table.

Established plants without an announced project amount, outside the pipeline:

• Apex Circuit (Thailand) (Taiwan, Samut Sakhon, since 2001): about 1 million sqm/month across four Thai plants.
• Shye Feng (Taiwan, Samut Sakhon, since 1990): an Apex International plant.
• Autech (Thailand) (Taiwan, Chachoengsao, since 1989).
• Circuit Industries (Thailand, Samut Sakhon, since 1990).
• Fujikura Electronics (Thailand) (Japan, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Pathum Thani and Prachin Buri, since 2010).
• Elec & Eltek (Thailand) (Hong Kong, Pathum Thani, since 1987): Kingboard's separate Ayutthaya project (1.2 million sq ft a month planned, first phase 600,000 sq ft due 2027) has no published amount.
• KCE Electronics (Thailand, Bangkok and Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, since 1982): THB 8,060 m Rojana factory (Nov 2022), postponed in 2025.

Twelve tranches publish a design capacity in square metres, totalling 10,460,500 square metres a year, or 871,708 square metres a month, at full output.

Method

The model proceeds in the steps below, with Kinwong Electronic (Thailand) as the worked example.

1. Register. 35 tranches at 29 plants publish an amount. Kinwong's parent approved up to CNY 700 million for a new production base in Thailand in September 2023,^[2] and up to CNY 700 million more for fit-out, production lines and equipment in March 2026, before the plant had started production.^[3] The register records the production start ceremony on 13 September 2026. Amount: CNY 1,400 million; start: September 2026, disclosed.
2. Currency. Bank of Thailand rates for 25 September 2026: 33.425 baht per US dollar (weighted-average interbank rate), and counter-rate midpoints of 4.9813 baht per yuan, 21.0888 baht per 100 yen and 1.05095 baht per Taiwan dollar.^[1] Kinwong: CNY 1,400 million x 4.9813 / 33.425 = US$208.6 million.
3. Revenue at full ramp. Announced investment is a gross cost, so the conversion ratio is revenue over gross capital spending: each listed bare-board maker's revenue divided by its capital spending over the previous ten years, from the MPBxChange financials panel (see what the listed makers' accounts say). Across 115 company-years of 30 makers from 2016 to 2025 the ratio has a median of 1.07, a 10th to 90th percentile range of 0.71 to 2.28 and a full range of 0.37 to 3.97; Kinwong's parent runs at 1.05. The model samples from this distribution. Revenue over net property, plant and equipment, a median of 1.97 across 342 company-years of 38 makers (1.16 to 3.53), is higher because net plant is stated after depreciation and serves as a high-side sensitivity. Kinwong at full ramp: US$208.6 million x 0.71, 1.07 or 2.28 = US$148, 224 or 476 million a year.
4. Timing. A tranche starts on its reported date (disclosed); on its targeted date with a slip of 3 months early to 9 months late (target); or, where no date is published, at groundbreaking or approval plus a construction time drawn from the 16 register plants that report both groundbreaking and start, 13 to 30 months with a median of 18 months (assumed). Output then rises linearly to full ramp. Where the register gives a full-output date (Victory Giant, Mankun, Welgao, WTT and WUS), the ramp ends on that date, 1.3 to 4.4 years after start in those 5 cases. For other tranches, ramp time is drawn from a log-normal distribution with a median of 2.5 years and a 10th to 90th percentile range of 1.4 to 4.5 years, calibrated to the disclosed cases. Ramp timing is taken from the register because in the panel accounts capital spending tracks same-year demand.
5. Simulation. Each of 10,000 runs draws one revenue ratio, applied to all plants, and one timing per tranche, then sums output for each year from 2025 to 2030. A common ratio per run preserves the dispersion between companies in the totals. The 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the 10,000 totals are reported. Kinwong's mean output across the runs: US$96 million in 2027, US$196 million in 2028 and US$266 million in 2030.
6. Cross-check. The increase in output over 2025 is compared with Thailand's 2025 bare-board exports and the export forecast.
7. Monthly figures. Annual output divided by 12 and, where a filing gives revenue per square metre, an implied board area.
8. Destinations. A shift-share of exports by destination, 2019 against 2025, identifies the markets driving growth.

The ranges are prediction intervals: ranges expected to contain the outcome with the stated probability, given the model.^[8]

Output by year, 2025 to 2030

US$ million a year. Output is the annual production of the tranches listed above; "over 2025" is the increase on the same plants' 2025 output, when several were already running. At full ramp the announced plants produce US$5,545, 8,407 or 17,798 million a year (10th, 50th and 90th percentiles). Under the high-side ratio (revenue over net plant), most likely 2030 output is US$13,466 million. Including the four undisclosed plants at their registered capital raises most likely 2030 output to US$7,682 million.

By province:

By the home country of the parent company:

Cross-check against the trade data

Thailand exported US$1,576.9 million of bare boards (HS 8534) in 2025.^[5] The Taiwan Printed Circuit Association (TPCA) puts Thailand's PCB output at US$5.06 billion in 2025, up 22.4% year-on-year, and expects US$6.09 billion in 2026, up 20.4% year-on-year;^[7] the difference between output and exports comprises boards sold to assemblers in Thailand and boards exported inside finished products. TPCA's figures imply output growth of about US$0.93 billion in 2025, from US$4.13 billion (5.06 / 1.224), and US$1.03 billion in 2026. On MPBxChange's reading, the model runs above TPCA's trajectory. The announced plants most likely produced US$710 million in 2025 (US$428 to 1,543 million), and their most likely increase in 2026, US$1,340 million (US$820 to 2,916 million), exceeds TPCA's implied increase of US$1.03 billion for the whole industry. The difference comes from the model's ramp assumptions: each tranche rises in a straight line from its start date to full output at the listed makers' sales ratio, while plants still qualifying customers may fill more slowly.

The export forecast, based on monthly trade returns, puts 2026 exports at a most likely US$2,107 million and 2030 at US$2,281 million, with a 95% range of US$1,136 to 5,723 million for 2030. Its growth over 2025 compares with the increase in the announced plants' output over the same base as follows:

US$ million a year. The forecast's most likely path requires 11% of the most likely increase in output to be exported by 2030, and its 95% upper bound 62%. At the pipeline's 10th percentile, the forecast's most likely growth equals 17% of the increase. The shares are 20% and 71% in 2027, and 14% and 66% in 2028.

The pipeline therefore supports the export forecast: a modest export share of new output reaches the most likely path, and the upper part of the forecast range is the better guide while plants ramp. Recent trade returns point the same way. Bare-board exports in January to May 2026 were US$833.4 million, 39.4% above the US$597.9 million of the same months of 2025,^[9] and the Office of Industrial Economics reports US$232 million in July 2026, 78.8% above a year earlier.^[10] Over the same months the listed Taiwanese makers' monthly revenue grew 24.7% year-on-year for January to May and 26.0% for July (the accounts article); the difference reflects new capacity in Thailand. For buyers, the margin between pipeline output and forecast exports represents plants in Thailand that are qualifying customers, quoting and filling lines now.

Monthly output

At a monthly rate, the announced plants' most likely output is US$289 million in 2027 (10th to 90th percentile US$183 to 620 million), US$420 million in 2028 (US$267 to 890 million) and US$613 million in 2030 (US$390 to 1,307 million).

The financials panel contains no revenue per square metre of board, so output is stated in dollars. In area terms, the 12 tranches with a published design capacity total 871,708 square metres a month at full output.

Export destinations, 2019 to 2025

A shift-share decomposition splits the change in exports to each destination into growth at the world rate and a residual shift. Thailand's bare-board exports rose 29.9% in total from 2019 to 2025, from US$1,214.1 million to US$1,576.9 million, across 93 destinations in 2019 and 87 in 2025.^[5][6]

US$ million, the twelve largest destinations of 2025. Expected at the world rate is the 2019 value times 29.9%; shift is the change less that amount.

China, the United States, Japan, Vietnam and India accounted for the growth: their combined change of US$467.5 million exceeded the total change of US$362.9 million, and their combined shift of US$297.8 million is most of the US$334.5 million of positive shift. China's share of Thai bare-board exports rose from 18.6% to 25.8%, the United States' from 10.5% to 15.5% and India's from 1.9% to 4.7%. The largest negative shifts were Laos (US$61.9 million to 7.3 million), Germany (US$67.9 million to 56.0 million), Singapore (US$33.9 million to 13.7 million), Hong Kong (US$41.4 million to 26.3 million), Hungary (US$38.0 million to 23.7 million) and the Philippines (US$25.8 million to 14.2 million). Thai bare-board exports are increasingly directed to assemblers in China, Vietnam and India, alongside the United States and Japan.

Limitations

The pipeline reflects amounts as owners published them, in the original currencies and at the dates shown. Amounts announced as ceilings ("up to") may be partly spent, and cumulative or paid-in figures may be below final cost. The four undisclosed plants count as zero in the main run. The revenue ratio describes listed companies over ten years of spending, so its range is wide when applied to new plants. In the panel accounts capital spending follows same-year demand and past spending has no significant effect on later revenue, so ramp timing comes from the register's disclosed timelines and a stated assumption. Start dates are owners' targets and may move in either direction. Output is plant revenue: part is sold in Thailand, and boards exported inside finished products fall outside HS 8534. Exchange rates are those of a single day. Kingboard's separate Ayutthaya project has no published amount and KCE's postponed Rojana factory no current start, so both are outside the pipeline. The shift-share uses Thailand's returns to UN Comtrade, which record the declared destination.

Output figures assume each plant fills at the listed makers' average rate, so they measure the productive capacity of the new plants. The accounts article finds that the existing plant of all 38 listed makers in its sample could already carry about a quarter more sales (26.5%; about a fifth, 22.3%, for the 28 makers with a plant in Thailand), so some new plants may run below that rate for longer than planned.

Sources and data

Research date 26 and 27 September 2026. Sources: the MPBxChange register of PCB plants in Thailand and its ownership records; the Bank of Thailand daily rate sheet; the Kinwong filings of September 2023 and March 2026 and the BOI release of 15 May 2026, no. 73/2569 (worked example and phase-two approvals); Thailand's returns to UN Comtrade for HS 8534 exports by partner in 2019 and 2025 and by month for January to May 2025 and 2026; the OIE report for July 2026; the TPCA release on Southeast Asian output; and the MPBxChange financials panel of listed bare-board makers, which supplies the revenue ratios from company filings (Eastmoney F10 for Shanghai and Shenzhen filings, FinMind for Taiwan filings). All table figures come from a single simulation run of 10,000 draws with a fixed random seed.